Are
we heading for a new winter of discontent?
By Jonathan Brown on 22 October 2005 in The
Independent
Britain could be left paralysed by energy shortages, a health crisis
and gridlock on the roads if the predicted Arctic winter strikes with
severity.
Prolonged sub-zero temperatures after nearly a decade of mild winters
could result in the death of tens of thousands of people, with fears
that the National Health Service faces the prospect of a full-blown
winter bed shortage for the first time since Labour came to power
in 1997.
The Confederation of British Industry warned that power shortfalls
caused by the rising domestic demand to keep warm and Britain's dwindling
strategic stockpiles could lead to factory shutdowns and a return
to the three-day week. At present, only 11 days' supply of gas is
being held in reserve, compared with 55 days' worth elsewhere in Europe.
Consumer groups fear that hardest hit will be members of the two million
poor households already struggling to cope with the 40 per cent rise
in energy prices since 2003.
Transport specialists also warn that the authorities have not acted
fast enough to keep motorways and other routes open in the event of
heavy snowfalls. The situation would be worse in Scotland.
Concern has been mounting since the Meteorological Office took the
unprecedented step of issuing a long-range forecast predicting the
likelihood of a much harsher-than-average winter. The "amber
alert" was based on lower-than-average sea temperatures recorded
near Iceland and off the Azores this spring. The findings are a typical
precursor for a phenomenon known as the North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO) which has resulted in some of the harshest winters on record.
The effects of the NAO were felt most spectacularly in 1963, when
temperatures dropped as low as minus 22C, the Thames iced over and
large swaths of southern England were blanketed more than a foot of
snow for weeks on end.
Forecasters say they are 67 per cent confident that this winter will
be among the coldest on record, and are urgently working on models
predicting exactly how cold it will be and for how long Britain will
freeze. A spokesman said the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister,
John Prescott,had been informed immediately, as had the NHS, the Highways
Agency and other relevant departments. "We told them to go back
and look at their plans. We have had nearly 10 years of warm winters
and society has changed in that time," the Met Office spokesman
said.
The Arctic temperatures could not come at a worse time for Britain's
energy consumers. All six power companies have relentlessly increased
prices in the past two years in the midst of worsening volatility
in the global energy markets. Average customers can now expect to
pay £750 a year on fuel costs. Already two million households
are spending 10 per cent of their income on gas and electricity bills.
Three-quarters of these are classified as vulnerable - among them
the elderly, sick or very poor. "When it is really cold at a
time when prices have already gone up dramatically, will people make
the decision to keep warm? We pray to God that they do," said
Adam Scorer, head of campaigns at Energywatch.
An extra 8,000
deaths are anticipated for every one degree centigrade that the temperature
falls below the winter average. When home temperatures drop below
16C, resistance to respiratory diseases falls. Cold air temperatures
lead to a rapid rise in the number of strokes and heart attacks.
A DoH spokeswoman said plans were being made to clear beds and cancel
operations should the worst-case scenario unfold. A spokesman for
the department said: "We are aware of the Met Office's severe
weather forecast for this winter but we always prepare for the worst
anyway." Concerns are growing that the Government has seriously
underestimated the impact of an exceptionally cold winter on business.
Sir Digby Jones, the director general of the CBI, said this week that
"businesses will shut down" and that the biggest energy
users will be forced to "throw the switch".
Demand peaked in the relatively mild January of 2003, when 449 million
cubic metres (mcm) of gas were used. This year, total availability
will be lower than in previous years at 476mcm - allowing a margin
of error of just 6 per cent. Lord Woolmer of Leeds, chairman of the
House of Lords European Union Committee, warned that the situation
had deteriorated since he submitted a report on the supply situation
last year.
North Sea supplies have been run down faster than envisaged over the
summer to exploit high prices on the Continent. Meanwhile the European
energy market, from which Britain must now import much of its supplies,
remains unreformed, and serious doubts have been expressed that it
can meet the extra demand.
The severe hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico means that production
of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has been badly disrupted. Consignments
destined for Britain have been diverted to the United States. Big
industrial energy users, such as steel and chemical companies, may
have tohalt production on very cold days to allow domestic suppliers
to take precedence. "The Government said that voluntary agreements
will be sufficient. But the real danger is that they may not be enough,"
Sir Digby said.
The Energy minister, Malcolm Wicks, dismissed the talk of a three-day
week as "scaremongering". A Department of Trade and Industry
spokesman said: "The market is likely to correct itself in the
event of any shortfall of supplies. A mechanism is in place to restrict
supplies to some parts of industry should the situation require it."
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