[Editor's
Note: Normally these columns are scheduled to appear every other Sunday
in the Kauai Garden Island News.The final published version may vary
from this text as TGI retains the right to correct and edit
the material. The copyright to the published version is held by TGI
owner Kauai Publishing. Some material in TGI columns may have appeared
on www.islandbreath.org already]
by Juan Wilson on 30 December 2007 Revision 3.3 071228
A Future History
Happy New Year! or Hau'oli Makahiki Hou!
A little over a year ago I wrote a "future history" of Kauai that
covered the years 2007 to 2050. This was in response to the Hawaii
Legislature's 2050 Sustainability effort. In August of 2006 I attended
the kickoff conference at the Dole Center in Honolulu and was very
impressed.
An excellent presentation was made at the conference that portrayed
four distinct possible realities for our future determined by the
influence of different groups: the military, the corporations, the
technocrats, or the environmentalists. Each future scenario, although
addressing some problems, failed in other areas.
As you might guess, the future reality I preferred to live in was the
one dominated by the environmentalists. It presented a state managed at
the bio-regional scale (ahupuaa) focussed on traditional Hawaiian
agriculture.
Unfortunately, the 2050 effort that started off so well stalled and
degenerated to a series of blathering platitudes, concluding with a
badly constructed popularity poll.
Old Predictions from 2006
How did I do on the predictions made in 2006? Here's a section covering
2007 and 2008 (previously published on www.islandbreath.org under
"Kauai 2007-2050").
2007: Tourism Stumbles
There will be a consolidation of air carriers flying to Hawaii. The
major mainland carriers to Hawaii are American, United, Continental,
Delta, and Northwest. At least two are likely to be taken over or
allowed to fail, with the first major tick upwards in jet fuel costs.
Consolidation and bankruptcy means layoffs, reduced service and higher
prices. Flight frequency will further diminish.
Already increased security and regimentation have made it more
difficult to fly anywhere. When petroleum climbs over and stays above a
hundred dollars a barrel, it will be more expensive and not much fun to
fly, even to Hawaii. Middle income people will not fly to Hawaii as a
casual vacation destination.
They will be too worried about making the next mortgage payment. Those
that can take a vacation will drive to Orlando. Those who can't will
take a bus to Vegas for one chance in a million to break even on their
credit card debt.
The Hawaiian airline tourist industry will begin a continued decline
from which it will never recover. All the businesses that are attached
to this industry will falter as a result. This domino effect will begin
at the rental car counter and go on to effect everything else.
There are several locations on Kauai with concentrations of small
businesses fully dependent on middle-class tourist dollars. These
include Koloa Town's main street; Hanapepe's historic district; Kapaa,
Waimea and Spouting Horn's craft fairs, as well as the Port Allen boat
tour industry.
The bottom will begin to fall out of the tourism based Kauai economy by
2008. Soon this will be unavoidably apparent. The disappearance of the
middle class tourist on Kauai will be the beginning of the reduction in
the number of middle class residents on Kauai.
2008: The Wealthy Bunker Down
Only the very rich will be left as "visitors" to Kauai. They won't be
interested in the trinkets offered to tourists.
In fact many of the mainland rich don't want to visit so much as
reside. They already perceive Kauai as a retreat from the places where
they made their fortunes. They suspect that their mainland homes will
be unlivable in the near future. Population growth, overdevelopment and
environmental degradation have made where they are unpalatable. As this
group retires or cashes in, they will be looking for a place to bunker
down for the hard times ahead.
That is what is driving the conversion of thousands of acres of
agriculture land on Kauai into five-acre MacMansion's today. This
process will accelerate as the economy flattens and the rich seek
cover. Real estate prices for "right location" on Kauai will stay in
the stratosphere long after the real estate markets the rich left
behind, on the mainland, are in shambles.
The self interest of the very rich will help finance some alternative
energy development on Kauai. The rich will continue to want to power
the telecommunication and entertainment technology they have become
used to, even if other tasks have to be performed with manual labor.
They will encourage efforts like Apollo Kauai to achieve some level of
energy independence for generating electricity using solar and wind
sources. Those that can afford to so will continue to live much as we
do today--only off the grid, generating their own power.
The Reality Check
My scorecard for 2007 should read "Close - but no cigar". Although
Hawaii tourism was down in 2007, it did not falter as predicted and the
businesses that rely on tourists' dollars have not been driven out of
existence.
Many of my predictions about the US economy and timing of a Hawaiian
tourism slump were based on the expectation of sky-high crude oil
prices. A year ago I was betting that crude oil would hit $100 a barrel
during the year, and keep going up. My forecast on stratospheric oil
prices was too early. I believe the "Tourism Falters" predictions will
come to pass, but later than I expected.
I still believe the 2008 events of "The Wealthy Bunker Down" are on
track. There will be consequences for the rest of us. A recent article
in this paper titled "Hawaii Residents Flee Expensive Isles" reveals
that over ten thousand residents, facing steep housing prices and a
high cost living, have been driven from the islands to the Mainland in
the last year.
New 2008 Predictions
Here are a few specific predictions about the events of 2008, a very
political year. Don't take them too seriously... I didn't.
On January 3rd, Barak Obama will win the Iowa Caucus, but Edwards, not
Clinton, will come in second. The real surprise will come if Edwards
can win in Nevada on January 19th. He could then easily carry South
Carolina's January 26th primary. This will set up a three way race for
Super Tuesday, on February 5th, when 24 states will have primaries.
Bottom Line: I predict that Edwards is the most likely 44th President
of the United States and he will be a populist president facing an
economy as damaged as that faced by FDR.
The Superferry will continue an underutilized service to Maui until the
Hawaii Supreme Court overturns the Special Session legislation that
allowed service to resume to Kahului Harbor. The John F Lehman Company
will eventually make a long term lease of the Superferry Alakai to
Blackwater Corporation for use by mercenaries. Linda Lingle's chief of
staff Barry Fukunaga (and former Director of Transportation) will be
charged with criminal conspiracy over his scheme to avoid Environmental
Assessments for the Superferry Corporation. There will be more calls
for a Lingle impeachment. Her political career will end with her
current term.
The Superferry will never resume service to Kauai. Moku District
(ahupuaa) organization and management will gain more favor across many
disciplines from food production to land use planning. Awareness of
bioregional districts will play a significant role in the political
outcome of our County Council election. Mayor Brian Baptiste will try
to save his tarnished political legacy with a populist stand on
overdevelopment. He will call for a broad moratorium on the kind of
development Koloa/Poipu are experiencing now. But it'll be too little,
too late.
Crystal Balls Are Murky
A year ago only a few people envisioned the blackhole that would open
up under the feet of the investment houses and lenders over the
sub-prime mortgage meltdown. Even months into the crisis, the full
depth of its repercussions are still unknown. Reasonable estimates of
loss are now trending from 500 billion to 750 billion dollars, with
more loss to come.
With credit lines freezing up and huge debts, this crisis, combined
with the home building slump, could be enough to unravel the US
economy. In 2008 the the US consumer economy could go down and stay
there. Some economists have predicted that if the Federal Reserve Bank
cannot quickly get a better handle on keeping credit liquid, there
could be a major economic crackup just months from now, leading to an
economic downturn of unknown scale and duration. The unpredictable is
just that.
But one can still
envision a positive side to even this calamitous possibility. The
collapse of economic growth could create a new culture in America. A
culture based less on greed and more self sufficiency. The only way to
solve the biggest problems we face (including our own extinction) is
for all of us to live with far less than we do now. For us on the
Garden Island it will mean more "Ho'okahi Kauai" or "Kauai alone,
separate, in solitude, together as a unit, and at the same time, made
one".
Some Suggested Resolutions
1) Grow some food in your yard and share it with neighbors.
2) Cut your shopping way down - Repair rather than replace.
3) Cut your gas bill in half - Drive half as much as you do now.
4) Accept less money in order to work closer to home, or better yet, at home.
5) Learn to make practical things you can use from local materials.
6) Acquire an artistic skill, like drawing or playing music, to entertain yourself.
7) Do things with others that are fun and do not require electricity.
8) Get involved with local issues where your efforts can make a difference.
9) Enjoy where you live and the places nearby that you can walk or bike to.
10) Don't worry... Be happy. |
